Thursday, April 28, 2011

2010 national grid company

Market 2011 SGC expects continued stable growth. 2010 national grid company and signed the contract, currently.347 billion yuan still did not confirm the scale in the income producing 6,100 thousand yuan. Although 2010 revenue recognition WangDa order is countries the peak, but the following three factors will ensure that the company's sales income from priorities in 2011 remain stable and slightly growth: SGERP engineering to SGC intensive and deepen the application is given priority to, from investment than before, will not have an apparent decline in general average level two years before the equivalent of about 70 percent; The 2011 company will begin charging software system maintenance service, we estimate that amount may be in more than 50 million; Rural reconstruction will launch a huge market demand, expand the overall scale of power market at present.

The 2011 business focus turned to power the market. In addition to the outside, financial software in asset management, supply chain, etc have mature solution. The 2011 company business focus turned to power generation, we think the market in 2011 generation producers sales will have more rapid growth, while under the influence of scattered clients structure, sales rate may rise further.

Give "buy" investment rating. According to the current company's latest 2.60 billion equity, not consider HKV mainly annual income, we forecast real estate 2011 the 2011-2013 respectively the fully diluted EPS for 0.94 yuan, 1.31 yuanhe 1.87 yuan, corresponding to the 2011-2013 respectively for 26 times dynamic p/e ratio, 18 times and 13 times. Give "buy" rating, according to the investment in 2011 to 30 times PE, 12 months reasonable target of 28.2 yuan.

Risk warning: electric power industry signed new orders below expectations risk; Core staffs loss risk. (wide hair negotiable securities (000776))

Wuhan ZhongBai (the 000759) : performance slightly below expectations increasing

By 1Q2011, company outlets, including ZhongBai reached 702 family home, ZhongBai 163 storage supermarket and surface, department stores and supermarkets 534 family home. Single quarter of 23 new outlets the families, with the storage supermarket increase nine, convenience supermarket 14 home. The company currently remain stable and development of denotation, we believe the faster speed as the 2011 August company of the logistics distribution center construction investment is used, will effectively support company, which further extension expansion must adhere to the further expansion of the supermarket formats scale effect. Report period year-on-year rise, the company integrated c.m 30k percentage point to 18.62%, largely due to the continuation of the products 1Q2011 brought in proportion improve straight gross margin, we think with future ascension, and the expansion of the scale of higher margin of good help BianMinDian speeding up, c.m still have improve space.

Artificially, rental costs rise, during 1Q2011 MBT Fanaka significant 0.46 percentage points

During the period, our company 1Q2011 rise faster, achieve significant 14.67% year-on-year increase 0.46 percentage points. Including sales/management/financial fee for 11.14% / 3.35% / year-on-year change respectively, predictive within 0.7-0.85 / - 0.35 / - 0.07 percentage points. Company sales rate have relatively substantially rise, the main reason is the employee wages, welfare increased labor costs and higher overheated personnel loss also resulted in recruitment, training input costs increased. In addition, the new open stores rent rises also increased company rents cost pressures. And the company is mainly due to financial costs decline in February 2010 to raise funds, get the match has won more interest income cause.

We think CPI high cost pressure after transmission to the MBT Sawa supermarket now gradually listed companies, this is a gradual process, so future appeared during the present condition should be significant slow rise.

Maintain increasing rating: we maintain company 2011-13 years EPS respectively 0.46/0.58/0.75 yuan in 2010, the forecast for the next three years, CAGR26.7 % base price target for six months 13.80 yuan, corresponding 2011 30 mbt shoes usa times price-earnings ratios of main business. Because at present, the company is still in the extension expansion, the future high-speed period second venture will lead to short-term profit ability is weak, and the supermarket sector overall face higher labor costs double pressure with store rent rises. In the present retail sector have band during sexual rebound opportunity, we don't recommend beta values smaller supermarket plate as rob rebound varieties, maintain increasing rating. (everbright securities TangJiaRui)

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